What’s Going on in the Markets April 7, 2018

Sandwiched between two "down" days in the markets this week (Monday and Friday), were three "up" days, culminating in an overall 1.4% weekly loss in the S&P 500 index. Fears of a full-blown trade war receded on Tuesday, resulting in a mid-week rally that eventually faded on Friday, as trade war fears resurfaced and weighed on the markets.

Despite the threats of a trade war, the outlook for the economy and corporate earnings, the fundamentals that truly drive the markets over the long term, both remain quite positive. Both surveys from the Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing and services) are firmly anchored in growth territory. And although yesterday’s monthly payroll report revealed that there were fewer jobs created in March (probably weather related), the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.

The broad market indexes are fluctuating near their recent lows as the market correction (and volatility) continues to unfold. The typical market correction lasts roughly 12 to 16 weeks, and this one is about 11 weeks old. But there are signs that the market is in a final bottoming process that could potentially yield a multi-week or multi-month rally which could start any day now. Corrections never feel good while they’re happening, but they’re a healthy way of “digesting” past gains and to keep the markets from overheating after a prolonged period of going up. January was particularly strong this year, but all those gains and more have been surrendered during this correction.

During this correction, clients may have noticed increased trading activities in their accounts. Our standard practice at the start of and during a correction are to:

• Raise cash levels by selling some profitable or underperforming positions.
• Increase hedges (a hedge is risk reducing instrument) through the use of inverse funds (funds that go up when the market goes down) and options.
• Adjust (short) options that were sold to take advantage of higher premiums and volatility, which results in additional portfolio income as we roll out to later months. Short options also act as hedges on the portfolio.
• Use technical signals in the market to identify potential bottoms, to begin putting available cash to work in new (now lower cost) positions.
• When uncertainty and risk are high, but opportunities present themselves, we may decide to limit client risk through the purchase of call options, or by selling put options, instead of purchasing outright shares. Both approaches increase exposure to the market with less risk than outright share purchases.
• Identify spots where it is deemed prudent to remove or trim hedges to reduce their overall “drag” on the portfolio. Hedges that are removed may be re-instated if the markets unexpectedly turn back down, sometimes even a day or two later.
• Monitor new positions purchased during the early stages of market recovery to ensure that these positions are “working”, keeping them on a short leash. All such positions are considered short-term until the market ultimately proves itself. Some positions that turn profitable but return to their buy point are sold for a small profit or small loss.

As the market showed signs of making a bottom early in the week, we were particularly active in reducing hedges and testing new positions. Because of Friday’s decline, unfortunately, we found ourselves reinstating some of those hedges and selling some of the newly established positions for a small profit.

Back to square one.

The process of market bottoming is an inexact science, much like the process of investing, so fits and starts are to be expected. As Friday’s decline gave back all the week’s gains and then some, we begin the process of looking for another market bottom next week.

During a correction (or outright bear market) our objectives remain to protect client capital first, and grow it second. Until safer market conditions present themselves, and volatility subsides, we will remain defensive and have a bit of an “itchy trigger finger” with new and existing positions.  We trust and hope that you agree with this approach, even if it increases the number of trades we make. Please excuse the extra trade confirmations that hit your in-box.

Next week kicks off the start of quarterly corporate earnings reporting season, wherein companies report their financial results for the first quarter of 2018. Estimates are that companies expect to report earnings that are on average 17% higher than the first quarter of 2017. If those results pan out as expected or better, we may be looking at this correction in the rear view mirror in a few weeks.

The dichotomy between a solid economy and a nervous, volatile market is a dilemma that requires patient discipline and an understanding of market history. It is still too early to determine if this is just a lengthy correction or if it could lead to a further decline and a full-blown bear market. Given the elevated risk and persistent volatility, however, it’s important to remain defensively positioned and to objectively evaluate key indicators as the evidence continues to unfold.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Is A Donor Advised Fund Right for You?

Executive Summary: Setting up a Donor Advised Fund (DAF) and front loading charitable deductions can save you thousands of dollars in taxes immediately, while directing distribution to charities in/for future years. Even if you decide not to establish a DAF, you should consider whether accelerating the coming years' charitable contributions to this year makes sense for you, especially if you are phased out of itemizing deductions starting the next year.

As you've heard by now, President Donald Trump has signed the Tax and Jobs Act of 2017, which mostly makes sweeping changes to tax rates and eliminates many deductions starting in 2018. For most households, this means no itemized deductions due to an increased standard deduction ($12,000 for single, $24,000 for married), a limit on the deduction of taxes ($10,000 of income, sales and property taxes combined) and elimination of most miscellaneous itemized deductions.

Many of you give generously to charities every year regardless of the prospect of deducting those contributions. While the changes to the deductiblity of contributions is little changed, the fact that you likely won't be able to itemize, means that you'll receive no tax benefit going forward if your contributions plus other itemized deductions don't exceed your standard deduction.

This means that 2017 may be a year that you'll want to consider a Donor Advised Fund (DAF) to take advantage of what might be your last year for itemizing, and take a large 2017 deduction for your contribution. The deadline for establishing a DAF is December 31, 2017, though for all intents and purposes, December 29 is the last business day of the year and may be the true deadline.  Of course, you can consider one for 2018 and future years.

A DAF is simply an account that you establish with the charitable entity of a well-known custodian (Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard or TD Ameritrade for example) and to which you make a lump sum contribution to fund future years' contributions. For example, if you give $2,000 a year to charity, you could fund it with $10,000 today, and direct $2,000 a year to your charities each year while the fund grows tax free. Better yet, if you fund the DAF with long-term appreciated stocks or funds, you'll get a full deduction for the fair market value of the securities, and never have to report the capital gain on your tax return.

This is right for you if:

1. You're willing and able to irrevocably contribute at least $5,000 (some custodians have higher minimums) to a managed account where you direct future contributions to the charities of your choice;
2. You expect to be phased out of itemized deductions starting in 2018 due to the increased standard deduction and other changes to itemized deductions (see above) or,
3. You would benefit more from an acceleration of charitable deductions to this year (than in future years) due to high income or lower tax rates in the years ahead.

Even if you decide not to establish a DAF, you should consider whether accelerating the coming years' charitable contributions to this year makes sense for you.

The most common ‘strategy’ for creating a donor-advised fund is relatively straightforward – donor-advised funds are a good fit any time there’s a desire to contribute (and get the tax deduction) now, but make the actual grant to the final charity at some later date. In fact, the whole point of a donor-advised fund is to separate the timing of when the tax deduction occurs from when the charity ultimately receives the money.

Once established, you can add funds to a DAF in future years, and you can take as long as you want to distribute the funds to various charities. Some custodians maintain minimum donations you can make to a charity at any one time, say $50.

The important caveat to remember in all donor-advised fund strategies is that once funds go to the donor-advised fund, they must go to some charity, and cannot be retracted for the donor. The charitable gift to a donor-advised fund is still irrevocable, even if the assets have not yet passed through to the underlying charity. Nonetheless, for those who are ready to make the charitable donation – and want to receive the tax deduction now – the donor-advised fund serves as a useful vehicle to execute charitable giving strategies over time. And it certainly doesn’t hurt that any growth along the way will ultimately accrue tax-free for the charity as well.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss setting up a Donor Advised Fund, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first. If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

10 Investment Mistakes to Avoid

There are many ways to lose money while investing your money. Here's a look at 10 proven ways to manage your stock portfolio into the ground in no time.

The temptation to sell is always highest when the market drops the furthest.

Who needs a pyramid scheme or a crooked money manager when you can lose money in the stock market all by yourself? If you want to help curb your loss potential, avoid these 10 strategies:

1. Go with the herd. If everyone else is buying it, it must be good, right? Wrong. Investors tend to do what everyone else is doing and are overly optimistic when the market goes up and overly pessimistic when the market goes down. For instance, in 2008, the largest monthly outflow of U.S. domestic equity funds occurred after the market had fallen over 25% from its peak. And in 2011, the only time net inflows were recorded was before the market had slid over 10%.
2. Put all of your bets on one high-flying stock. If only you had invested all your money in Apple ten years ago, you'd be a millionaire today. Perhaps, but what if, instead, you had invested in Enron, Conseco, CIT, WorldCom, Washington Mutual, or Lehman Brothers? All were high flyers at one point, yet all have since filed for bankruptcy, making them perfect candidates for the downwardly mobile investor.
3. Buy only when the market is up. If the market is on a tear, how can you lose? Just ask the hordes of investors who flocked to stocks in 1999 and early 2000—and then lost their shirts in the ensuing bear market.
4. Sell when the market is down. The temptation to sell is always highest when the market drops the furthest. And it's what many inexperienced investors tend to do, locking in losses and precluding future recoveries.
5. Stay on the sidelines until markets calm down. Since markets almost never "calm down," this is the perfect rationale to never get in. In today's world, that means settling for a miniscule return that may not even keep pace with inflation.
6. Buy on tips from friends. Who needs professional advice when your new buddy from the gym can give you some great tips? If his stock suggestions are as good as his abs workout tips, you can't go wrong.
7. Rely on the pundits for advice. With all the experts out there crowding the airwaves with their recommendations, why not take their advice? But which advice should you follow? Jim Cramer may say buy, while Warren Buffett says sell. Does their time frame and risk tolerance even come close to yours? How would you know? Remember that what pundits sell best is themselves.
8. Go with your gut. Fundamental research may be OK for the pros, but it's much easier to buy or sell based on what your gut tells you. Had problems with your laptop lately? Maybe you should sell that Hewlett Packard stock. When it comes to hunches, irrationality rules.
9. React frequently to market volatility. Responding to the market's daily ups and downs is a surefire way to lock in losses. Even professional traders have a poor track record of guessing the market's bigger shifts, let alone daily fluctuations. Market volatility is a good teacher of bad short-term investing habits. Refuse to be a student.
10. Set it and forget it. Ignoring your portfolio until you're ready to cash it in gives it the perfect opportunity to go completely out of balance, with past winners dominating. It also makes for a major misalignment of original investing goals and shifting life-stage priorities. Instead, re-balance your portfolio on a regular basis and keep cash available so you can buy when others are panicking.  Ignoring your quarterly statements definitely won't improve your investment performance.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Sources:

ICI; Standard & Poor's. The stock market is represented by the S&P 500, an unmanaged index considered representative of large-cap U.S. stocks. These hypothetical examples are for illustrative purposes only, and are not intended as investment advice.

How to Find an Old 401(k) Account

Here's the scenario: You worked for a company sometime in the past and contributed to the 401(k) or 403(b) plan.  When you left the company, you left the funds in the plan, forgot about it, but recently came across an old statement. Excited, you call the plan administrator, assuming that you can figure out who the current administrator is. You're lucky enough to reach someone and are told that the company’s accounts had been transferred to another plan administrator years ago. You then call the new administrator and are told they also could not find your 401(k) using your social security number or other identifying information. How do you proceed?  What are your options?

A recent Q&A by personal finance columnist Liz Weston tackles this very question.

First off, prepare to make a lot more phone calls.

There’s no central repository for missing 401(k) funds — at least not yet. The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp., which safeguards traditional pensions, has proposed rules that would allow it to hold orphaned 401(k) money from plans that have closed. However, that won't start until 2018. Another proposal, by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), would direct the IRS to set up an online database so workers could find pension and 401(k) benefits from open or closed plans, but Congress has yet to take action on that.

If your balance was less than $5,000 (or was more than that when you left your employer, but the funds somehow declined below that balance due to market performance or fees), your employer could have approved a forced IRA transfer, and the money could be sitting with a financial services firm that accepts small accounts. If the plan was closed and your employer couldn’t find you, the money could have been transferred to an IRA, a bank account or a state escheat office. You can check state escheat offices at Unclaimed.org, the official site of the National Assn. of Unclaimed Property Administrators (NAUPA). NAUPA also endorses the site MissingMoney.com.  Searching for an IRA or bank account may require some additional help.

If your employer still exists, call to find out if anyone knows what happened to your money. If the company is out of business, you may be able to get free help tracking down your money from the U.S. Department of Labor (at askebsa.dol.gov or (866) 444-3272) or from the Pension Rights Center, a nonprofit pension counseling center (pensionrights.org/find-help).  Another place to check is the National Registry of Unclaimed Retirement Benefits, a subsidiary of a private company, called PenChecks, that processes retirement checks, at www.unclaimedretirementbenefits.com.

Your employer or a plan administrator could insist that you cashed in your account at some point. You may be able to prove otherwise if you’ve kept old tax returns, since those typically would show any distributions. Ultimately, you may have to seek legal help if you're sure that your money is out there somewhere and you're not getting any results.

If you do find your money, understand that you may still have missed out on a lot of growth. Your investments may have been converted to cash, which has earned next to nothing over the past decade or so, particularly after inflation.

Leaving a 401(k) account in an old employer’s plan can be a convenient option, but only if you’re willing to keep track of the money — and let the administrator know each time you change your address. Your retirement success depends on it.

This shows why it’s important not to lose track of old retirement accounts. Ultimately, your current employer may allow you to transfer old accounts into its plan, or, more preferable, you can roll the money into an IRA. Either way, it’s much better to keep on top of your retirement money than to try to find it years later.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Source: How to track down an old retirement account by Liz Weston

Roth IRA Conversions after Age 70-1/2

A Roth IRA conversion allows you to move a sum of money from a traditional/rollover IRA into a Roth IRA, pay the taxes due, and thereby convert the future distributions into a tax-free stream out of the Roth IRA for yourself or your heirs.  You probably already know that the IRS requires you to start taking mandatory distributions from your traditional IRA when you turn 70 1/2, even if you don’t actually need the money.  A Roth IRA has no such annual minimum distribution requirement for the original owner and spouse. So the question is: can you do a Roth conversion at that late date, and thereby defer distributions forever?

The answer is that you CAN do a Roth conversion at any time, including after age 70 1/2.  But that might not be ideal tax planning.  Why?  Because at the time of the conversion, you would have to pay ordinary income taxes on the amount converted—basically, paying Uncle Sam up-front for what you would owe on all future distributions.  So, from a tax standpoint, you’re either paying taxes on yearly distributions or all at once.  (Or, if it’s a partial conversion, on the amount transferred over.)  If the goal was to avoid having to pay taxes on that money until you needed it, the conversion kind of defeats the purpose. Unless, of course, you have little other taxable income, and adding a Roth Conversion amount costs you little or nothing in taxes

The traditional reason people made Roth conversions was to pay taxes at a lower rate today than the rate they expect to have to pay on distributions in the future.  They might also want to convert in order to leave the Roth IRA dollars to heirs who might be in a higher tax bracket (keep in mind that a heir who is not your spouse is required to take a minimum, albeit non-taxable, distribution from a Roth IRA).  But with the new Republican Administration taking over, and Republicans controlling both houses of Congress, tax rates are odds-on favorites to go down, not up, in the near future.

If you still want to go ahead and make a conversion after the mandatory distribution date, the law says that you have to take your mandatory withdrawal from your IRA before you do your conversion. That means that you can't make a 100% conversion of your traditional IRA if you are subject to minimum distribution requirements.  Regardless, you or your tax advisor should "run the numbers" to ensure that you understand the taxes and tax rates that apply before and after the Roth Conversion.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other tax or financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cooki

Source:
http://time.com/money/4568635/roth-ira-conversion-year-turn-70-%C2%BD/?xid=tcoshare

The MoneyGeek thanks guest writer Bob Veres for his contribution to this post

e-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.