What’s Going on in the Markets May 8, 2022

It was another down week in the stock markets, which, under the surface, was worse than the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 indexes being down only about 0.25% might have suggested. Volatility continues to rule the markets daily as investors and traders try to discount the effects of inflation, interest rate hikes, a raging war, and the possibility of a recession in the coming months.

Speaking of interest rate hikes, the Federal Reserve (The Fed) met last week and raised short-term interest rates by 0.5% (bringing them to 0.75%-1.00%). The Fed signaled that more 0.5% interest hikes were likely coming and also mentioned that single day 0.75% hikes were not being considered. Although the markets breathed a sigh of relief on Wednesday and rallied about 3% from the day’s lows, that rally was short-lived as the markets gave it all back and more on Thursday and Friday.

As of Friday's close, the S&P 500 index is down about 13.5%, while the harder-hit tech-heavy NASDAQ is down about 22.3% year-to-date. Those figures, however, don't reflect the level of carnage under the surface, where some growth stocks are down as much as 80% from their prior peaks. Strength in the markets is found in energy stocks (where oil prices continue to float above $100 a barrel) and defensive stocks (consumer staples, some healthcare, and utilities).

Even bonds, long known to provide ballast to stocks, are down about 11% year-to-date and have not held up their end of the bargain. Bonds are having one of their worst starts to the year since the 1970s. Even if you're hiding out in 1–3 year short-term treasury bonds, you're still down about 3.1% since the beginning of the year. The typical 60/40 (stock/bond) portfolio has provided no shelter from the recent market storm.

When you see both stocks and bonds down in tandem, the usual culprit is an inflationary environment. Last month's government report on inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed inflation rose 1.2% in March, translating to an annualized rate of 8.5%. This coming Wednesday, we get the read on April inflation, which should see inflation easing from March levels (based on reports of declining used car prices, lower demand for homes, and supply chain improvements).

The Fed has two core mandates as its mission: 1) keep unemployment low and 2) maintain price stability.

At this point, The Fed has no choice but to raise interest rates to try and tame the inflation beast. Unfortunately, raising short-term interest rates has the side effect of slowing economic activity because capital becomes more expensive for both consumers and companies, thereby forcing a slowdown of discretionary purchases and capital improvements (and stock buybacks, which buoy the markets). We are already seeing a slight easing in housing market pressures as 30-year mortgage rates tick above 5%.

Inflation at the current rates is simply not tenable, and therefore The Fed must do what it can to keep the prices of goods and services at prices that consumers can afford.

Further taming of the inflation beast with short-term interest rate hikes can sometimes cause such a slowdown in the economy that we see negative growth in the gross domestic product (GDP), as was reported in the 1^st quarter of 2022 when GDP unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% (which is an annualized rate of 1.4%).

As of the end of the 1^st quarter, we had only experienced a single 0.25% short-term interest rate hike by The Fed, so that was not the proximate cause of the decline in GDP. More likely, the side effects of the ongoing war in Ukraine, a complete lockdown in parts of China because of COVID resurgence, and inflation worries all weighed on the economy in an otherwise environment of robust consumer demand.

The definition of an economic recession is two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP, so 2^nd quarter 2022 GDP is pivotal in determining whether we’re already in an economic recession. Perhaps that’s what has the markets worried.

Also on the economic front, both the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index and the ISM Services Index remained at high levels last month; however, there is some weakness developing under the surface. The ISM Manufacturing Index has fallen in five of the last six months, while new orders for the services sector fell to a 14-month low. At the same time, prices have remained stubbornly high in both indexes, which raises the possibility of economic stagflation (inflation + slowing economy) in the coming months.

What About Now?

While the markets continue their correction (pullback), we have continued to get more defensive in our client portfolios by selling more (underperforming) positions, adding to our hedges, and tightening up our option selling. Unfortunately, in a rising volatility environment, the fruits of our option selling labor don’t begin to show up in client portfolio results until after the volatility subsides, or those sold options expire. That doesn’t mean we won’t continue to allocate to those strategies to reduce portfolio risk, but in the short term, they may not display the intended positive portfolio effects.

While I don’t have a working crystal ball, I’ve seen little evidence that the volatility is about to subside anytime soon. Though the markets are oversold (stretched to the downside) on a short-term basis, we have not seen any bounces that have lasted longer than a day or two, at least not since late March. We are certainly overdue for a robust bounce that lasts at least a few weeks or months, but I don’t see any evidence to believe that we’re at a durable long-term bottom yet.

Therefore, this back-and-forth choppy action may continue until after the mid-term elections, as is typical for this part of the presidential cycle. We may also need to shake out more weak hands in the short term and get to some level of capitulation or panic in order to get a sustainable rally.

One contrary indicator, investor sentiment about the markets, is at some of the lowest levels--some levels on par with sentiment during the great financial crisis in 2007-2009 and the COVID crisis, hinting that investors are not very exuberant about investing in the markets. Another contrary indicator, mutual fund flows, shows that investors of late are cashing out of stocks in recent weeks, which means at some point, many will be forced to buy back their stocks in the near future.

If you’re not a client of ours, I hope you have taken some action with your portfolio during the prior market rallies, to reduce your overall risk and exposure to the stock market. Whether selling some underperforming positions, buying some bear market funds, or just hedging your portfolio in one way or another, figure out a way to reduce your overall portfolio risk. Don’t wait until the market is down a lot before taking some action. You want to have some cash on hand to pick up some “bargains” once the market resumes its uptrend.

If you have not, or if you still feel overexposed, you should consider doing so during the next market rally to bring your portfolio more in line with your own personal risk tolerance. This is especially true if you find yourself worried about your investments more than usual these days. Remember, no one can control what the market does, but you and only you can control the risk you’re taking and the amount of the loss you wish to sustain. If you’re picking up anything on this downturn, keep it small and expect that you’ll have to wait some time to become profitable on these positions. Disclaimer: None of the foregoing should be construed as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please consult with your own financial advisor or talk to us if you need help.

In a rising interest rate environment where inflation is not yet under control, and where The Fed is now a net seller of bond assets (instead of a buyer), stocks will have a hard time making it back to old highs, not to mention making new ones. While the 13-year-old bull market may not be finally dead, I don’t see this environment as friendly to investing as it has been in the recent past. Don’t assume that the “beach-ball” market that absorbed all manner of “meme stocks”, special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), Ponzi stocks, a flood of IPOs, and additional stock offerings is going to come roaring back, because I don’t believe that it will anytime soon. Remember, if your favorite stock is down 50%, you need it to double just to get back to even. I don’t think you can count on that anytime soon either.

There’s a saying in the investing world that most have heard: “Don’t Fight The Fed.” That means when The Fed is accommodative with low-interest rates and is actively providing liquidity to the markets (as they mostly have for the past 13 years), you’re essentially investing with the wind at your back. In that environment, you want to be a net buyer, not a net seller of securities.

If you believe that saying is true during the accommodative periods, then trying to fight the Fed when they are withdrawing liquidity and raising interest rates and insisting that the market should go up in the face of those headwinds would not make much sense during the non-accommodative period we’re experiencing right now.  A time of Fed accommodation will return at some point but be patient and cautious with new investments until then.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Minimum Distribution, Maximum Confusion

Summary: The RMD 10-year rule substantially reduces the ability of most non-spouse beneficiaries to stretch distributions from an inherited defined contribution plan or IRA after the death of the original owner.

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act of 2019 changed the rules for taking distributions from retirement accounts inherited after 2019. The new so-called "10-year rule" generally requires inherited accounts to be emptied within 10 years of the original owner's death, with some exceptions. When no exception applies, the entire account must be emptied within 10 years of the beneficiary's death, or within 10 years after a minor child, beneficiary reaches age 21. This reduces the ability of most beneficiaries to spread out, or "stretch," distributions from an inherited defined contribution plan or an IRA.

In February 2022, the IRS issued proposed regulations (generally applicable starting in 2022) that interpret the revised required minimum distribution (RMD) rules. Unless these proposals are amended, some beneficiaries could be subject to annual required distributions as well as a full distribution at the end of a 10-year period. Account owners and their beneficiaries may want to familiarize themselves with these new interpretations and how they might be affected by them.

RMD Basics

If you own a traditional IRA or participate in a retirement plan like a 401(k), you generally must start taking RMDs for the year you reach age 72 (age 70½ if you were born before July 1, 1949). If you're age 72 or older and still working for the employer that maintains the retirement plan, you may be able to wait until the year after retiring to start RMDs from that account. No RMDs are required from a Roth IRA during your lifetime (beneficiaries are subject to inherited retirement account rules). Failing to take an RMD can be costly: a 50% penalty generally applies to the extent an RMD is not made.

The beginning date for the first year you are required to take a lifetime distribution is no later than April 1 of the next year. After your first distribution, annual distributions must be taken by the end of each year. (Note that if you wait until April 1 to take your first-year distribution, you would have to take two distributions for that year: one by April 1 and the other by December 31. This has the potential to spike your tax rate, so discuss this with your financial or tax planner before deciding to defer your first RMD.)

When you die, the RMD rules also govern how quickly your retirement plan or IRA will need to be distributed to your beneficiaries. The rules are largely based on two factors: (1) the individuals you select as beneficiaries of your retirement plan, and (2) whether you pass away before or on or after your required beginning date (RBD). Because no lifetime RMDs are required from a Roth IRA, Roth IRA owners are always treated as dying before their required beginning date.

Who Is Subject to the 10-Year Rule?

The SECURE Act does still allow certain beneficiaries to continue to "stretch" distributions, at least to some extent. These eligible designated beneficiaries (EDBs) include your surviving spouse, your minor children, any individual not more than 10 years younger than you, and certain disabled or chronically ill individuals. Generally, EDBs are able to take annual required distributions based on their remaining life expectancy. However, once an EDB dies, or once a minor child EDB reaches age 21, any remaining funds must be distributed within 10 years.

Most importantly, though, the SECURE Act requires that if your designated beneficiary is not an EDB, the entire account must be fully distributed within 10 years after your death.

What If Your Designated Beneficiary Is Not an EDB?

If you die before your required beginning date, no distributions are required during the first nine years after your death, but the entire account must be distributed in the tenth year.

If, however, you die on or after your required beginning date, the newly issued regulations clarified that annual distributions based on the designated beneficiary's remaining life expectancy are required in the first nine years after the year of your death, then the remainder of the account must be distributed in the tenth year.

What If Your Beneficiary Is a Nonspouse EDB?

Here’s where it can get more complicated. After your death, annual distributions will be required based on remaining life expectancy. If you die before your required beginning date, required annual distributions will be based on the EDB's remaining life expectancy. If you die on or after your required beginning date, annual distributions after your death will be based on the greater of (a) what would have been your remaining life expectancy or (b) the beneficiary's remaining life expectancy. Also, if distributions are calculated each year based on what would have been your remaining life expectancy, the entire account must be distributed by the end of the calendar year in which the beneficiary's remaining life expectancy would have been reduced to one or less (if the beneficiary's remaining life expectancy had been used).

After your beneficiary dies, or your beneficiary who is your minor child turns age 21, annual distributions based on remaining life expectancy must continue during the first nine years after the year of such an event. The entire account must be fully distributed in the tenth year.

What If Your Designated Beneficiary Is Your Spouse?

There are many special rules if your spouse is your designated beneficiary. The 10-year rule generally has no effect until after the death of your spouse, or possibly until after the death of your spouse's designated beneficiary.

What Life Expectancy Is Used to Determine RMDs After You Die?

Annual required distributions based on life expectancy are generally calculated each year by dividing the account balance as of December 31 of the previous year by the applicable denominator for the current year (but the RMD will never exceed the entire account balance on the date of the distribution).

When your life expectancy is used, the applicable denominator is your life expectancy in the calendar year of your death, reduced by one for each subsequent year.  When the non-spouse beneficiary's life expectancy is used, the applicable denominator is that beneficiary's life expectancy in the year following the calendar year of your death, reduced by one for each subsequent year. (Note that if the applicable denominator is reduced to zero in any year using this "subtract one" method, the entire account would need to be distributed.) And at the end of the appropriate 10-year period, any remaining balance must be distributed.

The rules relating to required minimum distributions are complicated, and the consequences of making a mistake can be severe. Talk to us to understand how the rules, and the new proposed regulations, apply to your individual situation.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss your RMDs, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Common Tax Scams to Beware Of

According to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS), tax scams tend to increase during tax season and times of crisis. Now that tax season is in full swing,  the IRS is reminding taxpayers to use caution and avoid becoming the victim of a fraudulent tax scheme.   Here are some of the most common tax scams to watch out for.

Phishing and text message scams

Phishing and text message scams usually involve unsolicited emails or text messages that seem to come from legitimate IRS sites to convince you to provide personal or financial information. Once scam artists obtain this information, they use it to commit identity or financial theft. The IRS does not initiate contact with taxpayers by email, text message, or any social media platform to request personal or financial information. The IRS initiates most contacts through regular mail delivered by the United States Postal Service.

Phone scams

Phone scams typically involve a phone call from someone claiming that you owe money to the IRS or you're entitled to a large refund. The calls may show up as coming from the IRS on your Caller ID, be accompanied by fake emails that appear to be from the IRS, or involve follow-up calls from individuals saying they are from law enforcement. These scams often target more vulnerable populations, such as immigrants and senior citizens, and use scare tactics such as threatening arrest, license revocation, or deportation.

Tax-related identity theft

Tax-related identity theft occurs when someone uses your Social Security number to claim a fraudulent tax refund.  You may not even realize you've been the victim of identity theft until you file your tax return and discover that a return has already been filed using your Social Security number.  Or the IRS may send you a letter indicating it has identified a suspicious return using your Social Security number.  To help prevent tax-related identity theft, the IRS now offers the Identity Protection PIN Opt-In Program.  The Identity Protection PIN is a six-digit code that is known only to you and the IRS, and it helps the IRS verify your identity when you file your tax return.

Tax preparer fraud

Scam artists will sometimes pose as legitimate tax preparers and try to take advantage of unsuspecting taxpayers by committing refund fraud or identity theft. Be wary of any tax preparer who won't sign your tax return (sometimes referred to as a "ghost preparer"), requires a cash-only payment, claims fake deductions/tax credits, directs refunds into his or her own account or promises an unreasonably large or inflated refund. A legitimate tax preparer will generally ask for proof of your income and eligibility for credits and deductions, sign the return as the preparer, enter a valid preparer tax identification number, and provide you with a copy of your return.   It's important to choose a tax preparer carefully because you are legally responsible for what's on your return, even if it's prepared by someone else.

False offer in compromise

An offer in compromise (OIC) is an agreement between a taxpayer and the IRS that can help the taxpayer settle tax debt for less than the full amount that is owed. Unfortunately, some companies charge excessive fees and falsely advertise that they can help taxpayers obtain larger OIC settlements with the IRS.  Taxpayers can contact the IRS directly or use the IRS Offer in Compromise Pre-Qualifier tool to see if they qualify for an OIC.

Unemployment insurance fraud

Typically, this scheme is perpetrated by scam artists who try to use your personal information to claim unemployment benefits. If you receive an unexpected prepaid card for unemployment benefits, see an unexpected deposit from your state in your bank account, or receive IRS Form 1099-G for unemployment compensation that you did not apply for, report it to your state unemployment insurance office as soon as possible.

Fake charities

Charity scammers pose as legitimate charitable organizations in order to solicit donations from unsuspecting donors. These scam artists often take advantage of ongoing tragedies and/or disasters, such as a devastating tornado, war or the COVID-19 pandemic. Be wary of charities with names that are similar to more familiar or nationally known organizations. Before donating to a charity, make sure it is legitimate, and never donate cash, gift cards, or funds by wire transfer.  The IRS website has a tool to assist you in checking out the status of a charitable organization.

Protecting yourself from scams

Fortunately, there are some things you can do to help protect yourself from scams, including those that target taxpayers:

• Don't click on suspicious or unfamiliar links in emails, text messages, or instant messaging services — visit government websites directly for important information
• Don't answer a phone call if you don't recognize the phone number — instead, let it go to voicemail and check later to verify the caller
• Never download or open email attachments unless you can verify that the sender is legitimate
• Keep device and security software up-to-date, maintain strong passwords, and use multi-factor authentication
• Never share personal or financial information via email, text message, or over the phone

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

What’s Going on in the Markets February 27, 2022

Since our last post on What’s Going on in the Markets on January 30, 2022, the market has seen a flurry of volatility trying to come to grips with higher than expected inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the coming interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Our hearts go out to those suffering in Ukraine because of yet another unnecessary war.

Since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 Index has seen a maximum decline of approximately 11% on a daily closing basis, the carnage under the surface in many stocks and sectors of the markets has been far worse with some stocks down more than 75% on the year. In this post, we’ll look at the factors that may call for further declines or for a coming rally.

The Good

We’ve previously written about how markets undergo a pullback greater than 10% on average every 10-12 months, also called a correction. Therefore, the current correction, which was long overdue by the time it arrived in January, is part of the normal course of ebbs and flows in the stock markets. No one really knows if a correction will devolve into a full-blown bear market until after the fact (a bear market is a decline of 20% or more from the last market peak). While bear markets tend to be harbingers of coming recessions, they don’t always forecast them with 100% accuracy (nothing does).

Historically speaking there are no bells rung at the start of a bear market. In fact, market tops are notoriously difficult to identify except in hindsight, as they are often quite volatile and take months to unfold. The good news is that we’ve been preemptively defensive in our portfolio decisions. The bad news is that a few bear market warning flags are starting to sequentially wave and resemble some of the ones we’ve seen in the most significant bull market tops in history. But it’s not yet a sign to sell everything.

Corporate earnings are the primary driver of the stock market. Simply put, the better the earnings, the higher the market can go. Towards that end, the corporate earnings reports for the 4^th quarter of 2021 were better than expected from a revenue and net income perspective, and corporate guidance (forecasting) relating to 1^st quarter 2022 earnings were equally positive. Earnings guidance for the rest of 2022 tended to be even more positive and points to a reacceleration of the economy in the back half of the year. That tends to indicate that a recession is off the table, which is consistent with my beliefs and would stave off a bear market.

From a COVID-19 standpoint, since we’ve tamed the Omicron variant, the country is starting to plan for a return to a bit of normalcy with the relaxing of masking requirements around the country and less onerous vaccination mandates. This alone ought to put a bid into the travel, entertainment and leisure industry, as pent-up demand picks up steam and drives further spending. This also adds to the "no recession on the horizon" narrative.

The joblessness and employment figures are surprisingly to the good side, with unemployment levels lower and jobs numbers steadily improving. And employees and new hires are seeing higher wages, which again, will drive higher spending that will stave off a recession (but unfortunately, also drive inflation higher).

While the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine may have some impact on the delivery timeline of various goods and services, the supply chain constraints that plagued the economy in 2021 seem to be subsiding, removing some inflationary pressure, and allowing more deliveries of materials and finished goods to factories and consumers respectively.

The Bad

With one trading day left in the month, the S&P 500 Index is down about 3% for the month and down 8% from the year-end 2021 close. While totally within the realm of normal expected volatility, especially for a mid-cycle election year, it’s never fun to experience that kind of decline. That’s because, as mentioned above, many sectors and stocks have been hit far harder. Fortunately, the last couple of days saw a robust bounce in the markets from the depths of fear at the start of the invasion of Ukraine.

Inflation continues its domination of headlines as the last consumer price index clocked in at an annualized rate of 7.5% for January. Energy prices continue to rage higher as we saw oil a touch above $100 a barrel overnight last Thursday as news of the Ukraine invasion started to hit the headlines (the price of oil settled slightly under $92 at Friday’s close, but is spiking again in the Sunday overnight futures market). Food and commodity prices don’t seem to have found a ceiling yet. While some easing of inflationary pressures is expected as supply chains get back to normal and as jobs get filled, it won’t be enough to stave off interest rate hikes by the federal reserve, which are needed to keep inflation in check. I believe that we may have seen the worst of the inflation fears in January.

Speaking of interest rate hikes, estimates vary widely as to how many hikes the federal reserve will have to implement to tame the inflation beast (economists estimate between three and nine 0.25% hikes in 2021 alone). Even if we get eight 0.25% hikes this year, which I consider unlikely, we’ll still be at a 2% federal funds rate, which is quite accommodative for the economy and is generally still quite favorable for the stock market. Unfortunately, higher interest rates have a negative impact on bond prices, which have not yet found a footing this year either (but haven’t collapsed either).

Investor sentiment/psychology (feelings about the stock market) and consumer confidence are somewhat worrisome as they continue to remain moribund in the face of an economy that’s firing on all cylinders and a job seekers’ market that puts them somewhat in control (versus employers) and favors continued robust spending. Highly confident consumers tend to spend more, which drives the economy.

There is convincing evidence today that housing prices are in bubble territory. This carries strong implications for financial markets and the economy given the importance of housing to consumers’ views of their personal balance sheets. Unlike the 2005 Housing Bubble, which was largely predicated on subprime lending and credit default risk, today’s bubble has far more to do with affordability and interest rate risk. Mortgage rates have been suppressed over the past decade by the Federal Reserve’s ultra-accommodative monetary policies, including direct purchases of trillions of dollars in mortgage-backed securities and near-zero interest rates.

Mortgage rates dropped to a record low of 2.7% in early 2021 after the Fed threw the proverbial kitchen sink at the economy in response to the pandemic. However, the recent rise in long-term interest rates, along with the Federal Reserve’s decision to taper their asset purchases, have caused mortgage rates to spike back to 3.7% – the highest level in nearly two years. The combination of rising rates and rising prices has made the average mortgage payment on the same property approximately 30% more expensive than just a year ago. Monitoring the state of the housing market will be crucial in the months ahead as the Federal Reserve is due to begin tightening monetary policy as discussed above.

The Ugly

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is without a doubt an ugly, if not a well telegraphed development. If there was a wild card for the world economic recovery from the pandemic, it’s this--which has the possibility of derailing the recovery by disrupting supply chains and the flow of essential commodities from the region. Economic sanctions unfortunately tend to affect citizens more than the leaders they target, and also have an indirect adverse effect on the countries imposing them. Wars are of course unpredictable, so predicting the outcomes or effects is crystal ball type of speculation.

As the war stakes are raised, so too are the risks to the markets. If calmer heads prevail and escalation to the unthinkable can be avoided, then this should be another one of those bricks in the proverbial walls of worry of the stock markets. A protracted war that draws in other countries will lead to a market that no doubt will sell first and asks questions later.

However, one important historical insight is that most geopolitical crises or regional conflicts do not have a negative long-term impact on the stock market. In the few instances where geopolitical events have weighed on the market, it has been a result of either a broad-based global military conflict or a rise in energy prices (inflation) that puts upward pressure on U.S. interest rates (monetary policy). Of the last eleven crises/conflicts leading to war, only four of them led to a decline of 20% or more in the S&P 500 Index.

The current Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to cause even higher energy prices, yet at the same time, might reduce the possibility of a full 0.50% rate hike from a concerned Federal Reserve in March.

The biggest concern from fighting a protracted war is a possible global slowdown, which forces us into a recession. Should that happen, I imagine it will be mitigated by a slowing of interest rate hikes and perhaps monetary stimulus. I consider this scenario unlikely at this time.

Now What?

We continue to expect volatility during this mid-term election year and remain cautious and defensive in our positioning. A deeply oversold market resulted in a big bounce on Thursday and Friday of last week, but the escalation in the rhetoric, a worsening of war tactics and increasing economic sanctions over the weekend are likely to trump any oversold markets, and we could see a big give-back of the gains of the last two days come Monday, the last trading day of February. The futures markets on Sunday night portend a very weak open for Monday morning.

There is no doubt that there is a higher-than-normal degree of risk in the market today, and there has already been a significant amount of damage under the surface.  While the S&P 500 Index is currently only 8% off its January high, virtually half of all S&P 500 stocks (and an estimated 80% of NASDAQ stocks) are already down over 20% from their highs.

The jury is out on whether this will be a protracted correction or a major bear market. However, we know that every bear market started out as a pullback, some pullbacks led to a correction, some corrections led to a small bear market, and every big bear market started out as a small bear market. And that makes the next 60-90 days perhaps the most critical in this market cycle stretching back to its start in 2009 (excluding the COVID-19 crash).

Like everything else in life, there is no crystal ball when it comes to navigating the eventual end of a market cycle. Rather, a disciplined assessment of the weight of the evidence allows us to proactively position client portfolios to be defensive when it really matters. Going forward, we are prepared to further increase portfolio defenses depending on how the events in the market unfold. Using options, inverse funds, reducing under-performing positions and harvesting profits are all ways we can reduce client portfolio risk without necessarily exiting the markets (Disclaimer: none of this is a recommendation to buy or sell any securities).

“In the end, navigating a [probable] bear market is not about putting your money under a mattress and waiting for the sky to fall. Instead, the focus should be on proactively managing risk to carefully navigate a wide range of outcomes and positioning oneself for that next great buying opportunity.”-James Stack, InvesTech Research

No doubt these can be scary times for your hard-earned nest egg, and no one enjoys giving back a chunk of market gains. But as we’ve said before, the best way to profit from the stock market is to not get scared out of it. Enduring volatility is the price we pay for the outsized gains we get from investing in the stock market, but if you find yourself losing sleep over your portfolio, talk to your financial adviser (or contact us) so you’re invested in a portfolio that has the right amount of risk for your personal temperament.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.

Source: InvesTech Research

What’s Going on in the Markets January 30, 2022

With only one trading day left in the month, this January has seen the worst start to the year in the stock markets since 2008. Down just a tad under 10% year-to-date, after a stellar and steady 2021, could the auspicious start in the S&P 500 index portend a poor 2022 for the markets? After all, a popular market aphorism is “as January goes, so goes the rest of the year”.  Anyone who knows me well knows that I don’t ascribe much value to these popular sayings.

Much of the recent market volatility can be attributed to: 1) angst over COVID-19 variants; 2) worries about a federal reserve that has all but telegraphed 2-4 interest rate hikes in 2022; 3) the suspension of monetary stimulus (to combat inflation); 4) the absence of any significant fiscal stimulus expected from Washington; and 5) concerns over a potential Russian incursion into the Ukraine.

In this write-up, I’ll try to explain my viewpoint of what is going on in the economy and markets, and whether I think we’re heading for a much deeper pullback in the markets, or perhaps an economic recession.

Pullbacks, Corrections and Bear Markets

Enduring volatile markets is the price we pay for outsized returns that we ultimately earn for risking our money in the stock markets. Why even bother? Because cash and savings accounts pay us nothing, and bonds, which on average yield low single digit annual returns, ultimately lost a little money in 2021. Simply put, we need an alternative to stashing our money under the mattress. That’s especially true at a time when inflation is finally rearing its ugly head in a higher-than-expected way.

We need to invest in a way to at least overcome the depreciating effects of inflation on the buying power of our cash. Of course, we also need to be adequately compensated for taking the risk of investing in the stock markets.

In the media, you’ll hear about pullbacks, which is essentially any decline in prices of less than 10% from the last peak in the index, fund, or stock. Next, you’ll hear about a correction, which is a decline of 10%-19% in prices from the last peak. Finally, a bear market is a decline of 20% or more from the last peak.

2021 was such a smooth and steady uptrending year, where we barely had a couple of 5% pullbacks. By comparison, we generally experience between one and three 5% pullbacks a year. 2021 had no corrections, although we generally get one every 10-12 months. The last bear market we experienced came in February-March 2020 in the form of a 35% decline from peak to trough in the S&P 500 index, attributable to fears over COVID-19. We generally see a bear market every 3-7 years on average.

It seems obvious and unnecessary to state that the stock market is truly a “market of stocks”. Then why even say it? Because to understand what leads to pullbacks, corrections, and bear markets, you must drill down into the details of the indexes and see what’s really happening with individual stocks.

Despite an obvious uptrend in the indexes in 2021, digging into the details, you could see that there was trouble brewing under the surface. The number of uptrending stocks (stocks going higher) peaked in February 2021. So did the number of stocks making new 52-week (one-year) highs. At the same time, the number of stocks making 52-week lows bottomed and turned upward. A truly healthy market does the opposite of all this. But in fairness, after a very strong finish to 2020, the market was overdue in 2021 to take a "rest".

In stock market parlance, we call the number of uptrending stocks relative to downtrending stocks, and the ratio of stocks making 52-week highs relative to those making 52-week lows, components of “market breadth”.

For most of 2021, despite the stock market indexes making new highs on a regular basis, it was doing so with fewer and fewer stocks participating. An estimated 10%-15% of all stocks, which were quite strong, were masking weakness in the other 85%-90% of stocks. Small capitalization stocks, which make up the largest sub-segment of the stock market (in terms of number of stocks, not company size), peaked in March 2021 (note that small stocks attempted and failed in a rally attempt in November 2021).

All throughout 2021, we also observed more and more stocks making 52-week lows, and fewer and fewer making 52-week highs. Many stocks were down 20%-70% or more from their peaks, and those new low counts were increasing almost daily. Some COVID related and stay-at-home stocks which were the heroes of 2020 were being smashed. How can that be? After all, we were still making new market index highs on a regular basis throughout the year.

Without going into a long-detailed explanation about the structure of market indexes, let's just say that the biggest companies such as Apple and Microsoft (called large or mega capitalization stocks) have the biggest effects on the indexes, even if they are smallest in number. That’s how a cohort of 20-25 stocks could fool you into thinking that all was going great in the markets. Dig deeper--and you saw healthcare, industrial and communications stocks deteriorate as the year wore on.

If you wondered why your diversified portfolio didn't return anywhere near the returns on the indexes, the above partially explains it. If you didn't own enough of the chosen few outperforming stocks, your portfolio no doubt underperformed the market averages. That's called stock investing for the long term, and it's typical of many periods in the stock markets.

You’ll rarely if ever hear about the deterioration of market breadth on the evening news; you’ll only hear about new record highs in the indexes. Now you know a little better.

Pluses and Minuses

What does this mean for the market going forward? Are we headed for an economic recession? A bear market? Another double-digit return year? I’ll first discuss the pluses and minuses and then tell you what I see when I consult my broken crystal ball for the rest of the year.

Pluses

1. The economy is quite strong and continues to exhibit growth, with estimates of 3%-4% gross domestic product growth expected for 2022. Before COVID-19, our economy was growing at an annual rate of 2%-3%, but due to unprecedented stimulus, we have temporarily skewed the economic picture. I would expect the economy to return to normal levels of growth in 2023.
2. The job market continues to be robust and “tight”. Many more jobs are going unfilled than at any time in recent history, and that portends good starting wages for those looking for work. Companies that are expecting a recession would not be increasing posts for new and unfilled positions as they are right now. Higher wages mean that employees have more money to spend on goods and services, keeping upward pressure on the economy.
3. Earnings estimates for companies, which are the primary driver of stock market returns, continue to impress and increase over 2021 levels. Consumers are still spending strongly.
4. Many experts believe that the Omicron variant of COVID is the “swan song” of the disease, and that by mid-2022, the pandemic will be just another virus that is a part of our daily lives.
5. Traffic, travel, hospitality as well as office occupancy are slowly showing signs of returning to pre-pandemic levels in many major cities around the world.
6. Supply chain disruptions are easing around the world, taking inflationary pressures down with them.
7. Used car prices, a leading contributor to inflation, could be easing as semi-conductor chip production ramps up and finds its way into automakers’ cars waiting for delivery on their lots.
8. Consumer spending and demand for goods and services continues to be robust. Demand for travel and leisure services, considering the potential fading of COVID, can only be expected to increase.
9. The recent market sell-off has shaved off some speculative fervor from the markets, and the market is oversold on many metrics, which portends at least a short-term bounce (which may have started on Friday, January 28th).

Minuses

1. The strength in the economy could be hurt in the 1^st quarter of 2022 due to the Omicron variant disrupting production, increasing absenteeism, and reducing employee productivity.
2. Job growth and employee shortages contribute to wage inflation, which is the leading contributor to overall inflation. This will continue to pressure the federal reserve to increase interest rates to cool the economy. Higher interest rates reduce corporate earnings via higher interest expense, and implicitly lead to reduced stock price multiples (price-earnings ratio).
3. Although the recent sell-off has somewhat cooled the speculative fever in the stock markets, initial public offerings, special purpose acquisition companies, cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens, relative excess enthusiasm around speculation remains.
4. Housing prices may be in a bubble. With a continued short supply of available housing, this could also continue to exert upward pressure on housing prices for some time to come.
5. Monetary and fiscal stimulus, the prominent catalysts in one of the quickest recoveries from one of the shortest recessions in history (2020), looks to be notably absent given Congress’ failure to pass the Build Back Better stimulus bill last year. The likelihood of passing significant alternate stimulus legislation in a mid-term election year seems unlikely.

My Broken Crystal Ball Expectations

Normally, I try and avoid speculation about the future of the markets and economy, because I’ll just be guessing like anyone else.  But given that I manage million-dollar portfolios, and that I must make educated guesses about stocks, the markets, and the economy every day, I provide my thoughts for what they’re worth.

The weight of evidence points to a continuation of robust economic conditions that will lead to higher corporate profits. In other words, I don’t believe that 2022 will be the year we experience an economic recession.

This should lead to a stock market that’s higher at year-end than it is today. How much higher, if I had to guess, is probably less than 10%-12% from where we are today. That would mean we probably won’t make new highs in the markets for the rest of the year, which obviously means that I don’t think we’ll have a bear market this year.

Given uncertainty and angst over federal reserve short-term interest rate hikes and the ultimate lingering effects of COVID, I have near conviction that the volatility in the markets for 2022 will persist. That’s not saying much if I’m honest, because volatility is always expected in the markets. What I really mean is that the relative calm of 2021 won’t be repeated in 2022. But with volatility come opportunities to make new investments in stocks that become somewhat more fairly priced or undervalued.



As for the short term, Friday January 28^th saw a robust market bounce after a very tumultuous week. While the bottom of this correction may have been seen at the lows made on Monday January 24^th, we’ll only know that in hindsight in a few weeks. My best guess is that there may be one more re-test of that day’s low, but the real test right now is the robustness of the current bounce. If the recovery is solid and strong, then we may have seen the short-term lows for this correction.

Regardless, I don’t believe this means a straight up market and a full recovery of the immense damage done to tons of growth stocks, many of which won’t get back to old highs anytime soon, if ever.  If you’ve been nibbling on stocks into this decline, be ready to withstand a lot of back-and-forth action that will frustrate both the bulls (optimists) and bears (pessimists). "The secret to success in stocks is to not get scared out of them" - John Buckingham

If you’re stuck with poor performing investments, especially when you’re sitting on large losses, ask yourself whether it makes sense to sell them into the strength that any upcoming/current bounce ultimately provides. Don’t think that they’ll eventually and automatically come back, because many won’t. In general, I have a rule: if a long-term investment underperforms for 1-2 years after I buy it, it’s time to consider cutting it. Don't be too hard on yourself about it; just be ruthless in letting go of stocks that may have their best days behind them. Deploy the cash in better opportunities. If you found yourself too heavily invested coming into this decline, you may want to take advantage of the bounce to lighten up your exposure and take some risk off the table. Disclaimer: This is in no way investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities; please consult with your financial adviser (or us) for help.

For our client portfolios, we remain invested along with our portfolio hedges, which we adjust to changing market conditions. In addition, by using options to dampen volatility, reduce overall risk and generate income, we are well positioned to profit from whatever the year decides to throw at us.

For 2022, I believe that after 21 months of unusually calm and one way upward markets, this year will prove to be a more “normal” year with two-way market action, and likely single digit positive returns. But my crystal ball is still broken, so take this forecast for what it’s worth.

If you would like to review your current investment portfolio or discuss any other financial planning matters, please don’t hesitate to contact us or visit our website at http://www.ydfs.com. We are a fee-only fiduciary financial planning firm that always puts your interests first.  If you are not a client yet, an initial consultation is complimentary and there is never any pressure or hidden sales pitch. We start with a specific assessment of your personal situation. There is no rush and no cookie-cutter approach. Each client is different, and so is your financial plan and investment objectives.